Publications

Critical factors for the use of machine learning to predict lake surface water temperature 2022

Yousefi, A.; Toffolon, M., "Critical factors for the use of machine learning to predict lake surface water temperature" in JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY, v. 606, (2022), p. 127418. - URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169421014682 . - DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127418

2022 journal paper

Monitoring lakes surface water velocity with SAR: A feasibility study on Lake Garda, Italy 2021

Amadori, Marina; Zamparelli, Virginia; De Carolis, Giacomo; Fornaro, Gianfranco; Toffolon, Marco; Bresciani, Mariano; Giardino, Claudia; De Santi, Francesca, "Monitoring lakes surface water velocity with SAR: A feasibility study on Lake Garda, Italy" in REMOTE SENSING, v. 2021, 13, n. 12 (2021), p. 2293.1-2293.21. - URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/13/12/2293 . - DOI: 10.3390/rs13122293

2021 journal paper

Deep-mixing and deep-cooling events in Lake Garda: Simulation and mechanisms 2021

Biemond, Bouke; Amadori, Marina; Toffolon, Marco; Piccolroaz, Sebastiano; van Haren, Hans; Dijkstra, Henk, "Deep-mixing and deep-cooling events in Lake Garda: Simulation and mechanisms" in JOURNAL OF LIMNOLOGY, v. 80, n. 2 (2021), p. 2010.1-2010.18. - URL: https://jlimnol.it/index.php/jlimnol/article/view/2010 . - DOI: 10.4081/JLIMNOL.2021.2010

2021 journal paper

Moored observations of turbulent mixing events in deep Lake Garda, Italy 2021

van Haren, Hans; Piccolroaz, Sebastiano; Amadori, Marina; Toffolon, Marco; Dijkstra, Henk A., "Moored observations of turbulent mixing events in deep Lake Garda, Italy" in JOURNAL OF LIMNOLOGY, v. 80, n. 1 (2021), p. 1-18. - URL: https://www.jlimnol.it/index.php/jlimnol/article/view/jlimnol.2020.1983 . - DOI: 10.4081/jlimnol.2020.1983

2021 journal paper

On the role of local depth and latitude on surface warming heterogeneity in the Laurentian Great Lakes 2021

Calamita, Elisa; Piccolroaz, Sebastiano; Majone, Bruno; Toffolon, Marco, "On the role of local depth and latitude on surface warming heterogeneity in the Laurentian Great Lakes" in INLAND WATERS, v. 2021, 11, n. 2 (2021), p. 208-222. - URL: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/20442041.2021.1873698 . - DOI: 10.1080/20442041.2021.1873698

2021 journal paper

Multi-scale evaluation of a 3D lake model forced by an atmospheric model against standard monitoring data 2021

Amadori, Marina; Giovannini, Lorenzo; Toffolon, Marco; Piccolroaz, Sebastiano; Zardi, Dino; Bresciani, Mariano; Giardino, Claudia; Luciani, Giulia; Kliphuis, Michael; van Haren, Hans; Dijkstra, Henk A., "Multi-scale evaluation of a 3D lake model forced by an atmospheric model against standard monitoring data" in ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE, v. 139, (2021), p. 105017.1-105017.21. - URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1364815221000608 . - DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105017

2021 journal paper

A multi-site, year-round turbulence microstructure atlas for the deep perialpine Lake Garda 2021

Piccolroaz, Sebastiano; Fernández-Castro, Bieito; Toffolon, Marco; Dijkstra, Henk A., "A multi-site, year-round turbulence microstructure atlas for the deep perialpine Lake Garda" in SCIENTIFIC DATA, v. 8, n. 1 (2021), p. 188.1-188.20. - URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-021-00965-0 . - DOI: 10.1038/s41597-021-00965-0

2021 journal paper

SELF v1.0: a minimal physical model for predicting time of freeze-up in lakes 2021

Toffolon, M.; Cortese, L.; Bouffard, D., "SELF v1.0: a minimal physical model for predicting time of freeze-up in lakes" in GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT, v. 14, n. 12 (2021), p. 7527-7543. - URL: https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/14/7527/2021/gmd-14-7527-2021.html . - DOI: 10.5194/gmd-14-7527-2021

2021 journal paper

Using remote sensing and numerical modelling to quantify a turbidity discharge event in lake garda 2021

Ghirardi, Nicola; Amadori, Marina; Free, Gary; Giovannini, Lorenzo; Toffolon, Marco; Giardino, Claudia; Bresciani, Mariano, "Using remote sensing and numerical modelling to quantify a turbidity discharge event in lake garda" in JOURNAL OF LIMNOLOGY, v. 80, n. 1 (2021), p. 1-6. - URL: https://www.jlimnol.it/index.php/jlimnol/article/view/jlimnol.2020.1981 . - DOI: 10.4081/jlimnol.2020.1981

2021 journal paper

New Conceptual Framework for the Erosion of Fine Sediment from a Gravel Matrix Based on Experimental Analysis 2020

Stradiotti, Giulia; Righetti, Maurizio; Tarekegn, Tesfaye Haimanot; Wharton, Geraldene; Toffolon, Marco, "New Conceptual Framework for the Erosion of Fine Sediment from a Gravel Matrix Based on Experimental Analysis" in JOURNAL OF HYDRAULIC ENGINEERING, v. 146, n. 9 (2020), p. 04020061.1-04020061.11. - URL: https://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/(ASCE)HY.1943-7900.0001795 . - DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)HY.1943-7900.0001795

2020 journal paper

On the use of averaged indicators to assess lakes’ thermal response to changes in climatic conditions 2020

Toffolon, Marco; Piccolroaz, Sebastiano; Calamita, Elisa, "On the use of averaged indicators to assess lakes’ thermal response to changes in climatic conditions" in ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, v. 15, n. 3 (2020), p. 034060. - URL: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab763e . - DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab763e

2020 journal paper

SMART Research: Toward Interdisciplinary River Science in Europe 2020

Serlet, A. J.; Lopez Moreira M, G. A.; Zolezzi, G.; Wharton, G.; Holker, F.; Gurnell, A. M.; Tockner, K.; Bertoldi, W.; Bruno, M. C.; Jahnig, S. C.; Lewandowski, J.; Monaghan, M. T.; Rillig, M. C.; Rogato, M.; Toffolon, M.; Veresoglou, S. D.; Zarfl, C., "SMART Research: Toward Interdisciplinary River Science in Europe" in FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE, v. 8, n. 8, 63 (2020). - DOI: 10.3389/fenvs.2020.00063

2020 journal paper

A framework of global competence for engineers: The need for a sustainable world 2020

Ortiz-Marcos, Isabel; Breuker, Valeria; Rodriguez-Rivero, Rocio; Kjellgren, Björn; Dorel, Frédéric; Toffolon, Marco; Uribe, Diego; Eccli, Virna, "A framework of global competence for engineers: The need for a sustainable world" in SUSTAINABILITY, v. 2020, 12, n. 22 (2020), p. 9568.1-9568.25. - URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/22/9568 . - DOI: 10.3390/su12229568

2020 journal paper

SESTET: A spatially explicit stream temperature model based on equilibrium temperature 2020

Carraro, L.; Toffolon, M.; Rinaldo, A.; Bertuzzo, E., "SESTET: A spatially explicit stream temperature model based on equilibrium temperature" in HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, v. 34, n. 2 (2020), p. 355-369. - URL: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/hyp.13591 . - DOI: 10.1002/hyp.13591

2020 journal paper

What makes an elongated lake ‘large’? Scales from wind-driven steady circulation on a rotating Earth 2020

Amadori, Marina; Piccolroaz, Sebastiano; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Toffolon, Marco, "What makes an elongated lake ‘large’? Scales from wind-driven steady circulation on a rotating Earth" in JOURNAL OF GREAT LAKES RESEARCH, v. 46, n. 4 (2020), p. 703-717. - URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0380133019302035 . - DOI: 10.1016/j.jglr.2019.10.013

2020 journal paper

Involving citizens in hydrodynamic research: A combined local knowledge - numerical experiment on Lake Garda, Italy 2020

Amadori, M.; Morini, G.; Piccolroaz, S.; Toffolon, M., "Involving citizens in hydrodynamic research: A combined local knowledge - numerical experiment on Lake Garda, Italy" in SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT, v. 722, (2020), p. 137720. - URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720312316 . - DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137720

2020 journal paper

Importance of planetary rotation for ventilation processes in deep elongated lakes: Evidence from Lake Garda (Italy) 2019

Piccolroaz, S.; Amadori, M.; Toffolon, M.; Dijkstra, H. A., "Importance of planetary rotation for ventilation processes in deep elongated lakes: Evidence from Lake Garda (Italy)" in SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, v. 9, n. 1 (2019), p. 8290. - URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-44730-1 . - DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-44730-1

2019 journal paper

A Model-Based Analysis of Metal Fate in the Thames Estuary 2019

Premier, Valentina; de Souza Machado, Anderson Abel; Mitchell, Steve; Zarfl, Christiane; Spencer, Kate; Toffolon, Marco, "A Model-Based Analysis of Metal Fate in the Thames Estuary" in ESTUARIES AND COASTS, v. 42, n. 4 (2019), p. 1185-1201. - URL: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12237-019-00544-y . - DOI: 10.1007/s12237-019-00544-y

2019 journal paper

CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS FOR LAKES SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURE IN THE LAURENTIAN GREAT LAKES REGION: UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT 2018

Piccioni, F.; Piccolroaz, S.; Toffolon, M.; Majone, B., "CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS FOR LAKES SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURE IN THE LAURENTIAN GREAT LAKES REGION: UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT" in Book of abstracts ELLS-IAGLR-2018, Evian: INRA, 2018. Proceedings of: ELLS-IAGLR-2018, Evian (France), 23th - 28th September 2018

2018 extended abstract

Quantifying the impact of the Three Gorges Dam on the thermal dynamics of the Yangtze River 2018

Cai, Huayang; Piccolroaz, Sebastiano; Huang, Jingzheng; Liu, Zhiyong; Liu, Feng; Toffolon, Marco, "Quantifying the impact of the Three Gorges Dam on the thermal dynamics of the Yangtze River" in ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, v. 13, n. 5 (2018), p. 054016. - URL: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aab9e0/pdf . - DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aab9e0

This study examines the impact of the world’s largest dam, the Three Gorges Dam (TGD), on the thermal dynamics of the Yangtze River (China). The analysis uses long-term observations of river water temperature (RWT) in four stations and reconstructs the RWT that would have occurred in absence of the TGD. Relative to pre-TGD conditions, RWT consistently warmed in the region due to air temperature (AT) increase. In addition, the analysis demonstrates that the TGD significantly affected RWT in the downstream reach. At the closest downstream station (Yichang) to the TGD, the annual cycle of RWT experienced a damped response to AT and a marked seasonal alteration: warming during all seasons except for spring and early summer which were characterized by cooling. Both effects were a direct consequence of the larger thermal inertia of themassive water volume stored in the TGD reservoir, causing the downstream reach to be more thermally resilient. The approach used here to quantify the separate contributions of climate and human interventions on RWT can be used to set scientific guidelines for river management and conservation planning strategies.

2018 journal paper

Exploring and quantifying river thermal response to heatwaves 2018

Piccolroaz, Sebastiano; Toffolon, Marco; Robinson, Christopher T.; Siviglia, Annunziato, "Exploring and quantifying river thermal response to heatwaves" in WATER, v. 10, n. 8 (2018), p. 1098. - URL: http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/10/8/1098/pdf . - DOI: 10.3390/w10081098

2018 journal paper

Eutrophication, research and management history of the shallow Ypacaraí Lake (Paraguay) 2018

Moreira, M. Gregorio Alejandro López; Hinegk, Luigi; Salvadore, Andrea; Zolezzi, Guido; Hölker, Franz; Domecq, S. Roger Arturo Monte; Bocci, Martina; Carrer, Sebastiano; De Nat, Luca; Escribá, Juan; Escribá, Carmen; Benítez, Gilberto Antonio; Ávalos, Claudia Raquel; Peralta, Inocencia; Insaurralde, Mario; Mereles, Fátima; Sekatcheff, Jean Michel; Wehrle, Andrés; Facetti-Masulli, Juan Francisco; Facetti, Juan Francisco; Toffolon, Marco, "Eutrophication, research and management history of the shallow Ypacaraí Lake (Paraguay)" in SUSTAINABILITY, v. 10, n. 7 (2018). - URL: http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/7/2426/pdf . - DOI: 10.3390/su10072426

Ypacaraí Lake is the most renowned lake in landlocked Paraguay and a major source of drinking and irrigation water for neighbouring towns. Beyond its socioeconomic and cultural significance, it has great ecological importance, supporting a rich biodiversity. Rapid growth of human presence and activities within its basin has led to its environmental degradation, a heartfelt matter of high political concern that compels intervention. Here, by reconstructing the history of scientific and management-oriented research on this system, we provide a comprehensive assessment of current knowledge and practice to which we contribute our recent, novel findings. An upward trend in total phosphorus concentration confirms ongoing eutrophication of an already eutrophic system, evidenced by consistently high values of trophic state indices. Downward trends in water transparency and chlorophyll-a concentration support the hypothesis that primary production in this lake is fundamentally light limited. Statistical and other analyses suggest high sensitivity of the system to hydraulic, hydro-morphological and hydro-meteorological alterations arising, respectively, from engineering interventions, land use and climate change. By discussing knowledge gaps, opportunities for research and challenges for management and restoration, we argue that this case is of high scientific value and that its study can advance theoretical understanding of shallow subtropical lakes.

2018 journal paper

Thermal discontinuities along a lowland river: The importance of urban areas and lakes 2018

Arora, Roshni; Toffolon, Marco; Tockner, Klement; Venohr, Markus, "Thermal discontinuities along a lowland river: The importance of urban areas and lakes" in JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY, v. 564, (2018), p. 811-823. - URL: www.elsevier.com/inca/publications/store/5/0/3/3/4/3 . - DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.05.066

Despite increasing knowledge on the spatio-temporal dynamics of river temperature, a master water quality variable, it remains a challenge to identify the landscape variables influencing thermal heterogeneity along entire river courses. The present study investigated the spatial heterogeneity of stream temperature (ST), and the role of landscape variables, at 20 locations along the 195 km course of the intensively managed lowland River Spree (NE Germany) over a period of nine months. Along the river, four distinct thermal sections were identified, created by thermal discontinuities induced by lakes and an urban area. Three approaches, namely heat budget modelling (estimating the unresolved residual heat flux), both in Eulerian and Lagrangian form, semi-empirical air2stream modelling, and statistical correlations were applied to quantify the observed thermal heterogeneity and the role of climatic (air temperature) and landscape variables (land use, lakes, stream azimuth). Urban areas and lakes were identified as heat sources (in summer), which induced ST discontinuities at different time scales (daily, monthly and during the entire study period). Statistical correlations showed that heat inputs and ST increased with increasing urban area and decreased with distance from lakes. Furthermore, comparison of observed STs and those simulated via the Lagrangian model revealed that heat advection was the dominant thermal process in a lake-influenced section and persisted over a distance of up to 20 km. Simulations showed that this effect could not be significantly diminished even by complete riparian shading along the section, as the sub-daily ST reduced by an average of only 1.5 degrees C. Hence, plantation of riparian buffers should be complemented with additional mitigation measures such as improving the groundwater table recharge, managing the temperature of urban discharges, to mitigate climate change impacts on ST.

2018 journal paper

Analysis of uncertainty sources in projecting lake surface water temperature: Application to the Laurentian Great Lakes 2018

Piccioni, F.; Piccolroaz, S.; Toffolon, M.; Majone, B., "Analysis of uncertainty sources in projecting lake surface water temperature: Application to the Laurentian Great Lakes" in Proc. of the 5th IAHR Europe Congress - New challenges in hydraulic research and engineering, Trento: 5th IAHR Europe Congress Organizers, 2018, p. 329-330. - ISBN: 978-981-11-2731-1. Proceedings of: 5th IAHR Europe Congress, Trento (Italy), 12th - 14th June 2018

2018 extended abstract

On the predictability of lake surface temperature using air temperature in a changing climate: A case study for Lake Tahoe (U.S.A.) 2018

Piccolroaz, Sebastiano; Healey, N. C.; Lenters, J. D.; Schladow, S. G.; Hook, S. J.; Sahoo, G. B.; Toffolon, Marco, "On the predictability of lake surface temperature using air temperature in a changing climate: A case study for Lake Tahoe (U.S.A.)" in LIMNOLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY, v. 2018, n. 63.1 (2018), p. 243-261. - URL: https://aslopubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/lno.10626 . - DOI: 10.1002/lno.10626

Can we predict long-term trends of lake surface temperature based on air temperature alone? We explore this question by analyzing the performance of a hybrid model (air2water) as a predictive tool for defining scenarios of lake surface temperature in the framework of climate change studies. Employing Lake Tahoe (U.S.A.) as a case study, we apply the model using different air temperature datasets (in situ measurements, gridded observations, and downscaled General Circulation Models). Through a data-driven calibration of the model parameters based on surface water temperature records, we show that air2water provides good performance (root mean square error ∼ 0.5°C, on a monthly scale) regardless of the input dataset. The model is able to accurately capture the historical long-term trend and interannual fluctuations over decades (from 1969 to present), using only 7 yr of monthly measurements of surface water temperature for calibration. Additionally, when used to predict future surface water temperature of the lake, air2water produces the same projections irrespective of the air temperature dataset used to drive the model. This is certainly desirable, but not immediately expected when using a relatively simple model. Overall, the results suggest the high potential and robustness of air2water as a predictive tool for climate change assessment. Lake surface temperature warming of up to 1.1°C (RCP 4.5) and 2.9°C (RCP 8.5) was simulated at the end of the 21st century during summer months in Lake Tahoe. Such a scenario, if realized, would lead to serious consequences on lake water chemistry, primary productivity, plankton community structure, and nutrient cycling.

2018 journal paper